ISBN: 978-1529227543, Bristol University Press, August 2024, 204 pages, $89.06 (hardcover)
Reviewed by: Nancy Ramirez, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA
A New Cold War by Zeno Leoni examines the evolving rivalry between the United States and China by analyzing the political and strategic foundations shaping each country’s approach to global power. Leoni highlights how the U.S.–China dynamic has resulted in “coopetition,” a term he uses to describe the uneasy blend of cooperation, restraint, and competition. He argues that the relationship has shifted from a “marriage of convenience” to a “new type of cold war.” Unlike the Cold War of the 20th century, this new iteration is defined less by direct military confrontation and more by unconventional forms of competition and deterrence, hinting at the potential re-emergence of bloc politics.
The book explores issues such as economic interdependence and its potential to fuel bloc alignments. Leoni’s central thesis is that U.S.–China relations have transitioned into a “new type of Cold War,” characterized not by open military conflict but by deep economic ties, ideological clashes, and power imbalances.
Leoni begins by deconstructing the notion and historical significance of the Cold War, challenging traditional interpretations. He argues that while certain Cold War features are unique, others are more universal and adaptable to different contexts. This reinterpretation provides a framework for understanding how U.S.–China relations mirror Cold War–style competition without escalating into armed conflict, while still incorporating cooperation and restraint.
By grounding his analysis in international relations theory, Leoni identifies tools for examining a relationship marked by both diplomatic and military tensions. He suggests that under “new type of cold war” conditions, spheres of influence remain highly relevant. Great powers like the U.S. and China attempt to manage contradictions within the liberal international order (LIO) by reshaping the global environment through foreign policy, military strategy, and economic influence—especially as the LIO no longer fully satisfies either side.
Since the end of WWII, the U.S. has been the dominant superpower in what Leoni calls a “global sphere of influence.” China’s pursuit of modernization dates back to the Opium Wars but accelerated with Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, which eased its integration into the liberal order—though not without compromises to national political structures. Despite significant differences, both superpowers share parallels: each underwent developmental periods marked by internal adjustment while expanding its global reach. The 1972 rapprochement marked a turning point, initiating their “marriage of convenience.” Economic interests sustained this arrangement despite deep political suspicions. Yet by the early 21st century, the foundations of this partnership began to erode.
Leoni’s research goes beyond economic interdependence, addressing both nations’ efforts to reduce it. He notes that Washington’s primary aim is safeguarding its economy, but interdependence carries risks for national security, technology, and resource access. While decoupling has become a policy goal, Leoni argues it is unlikely in the near term, reinforcing his thesis of a reluctant but enduring partnership. Doubts about the effectiveness of U.S. initiatives like the Quad and AUKUS further keep the conflict “cold.”
Leoni analyzes both powers’ push toward decoupling and the risks of separation, while also exploring broader global consequences. He contends that the new Cold War is asymmetric, given China’s weaker military power and limited force-projection capabilities compared to the U.S., alongside uncertainties in American alliances.
In the concluding chapter, Leoni forecasts that the U.S.–China “marriage of convenience” may soon collapse into stalemate. He notes that although the Cold War is often said to have ended in 1989, Russia and China’s alliances with each other—and ongoing U.S. conflicts with both—suggest continuity rather than closure. Leoni argues that “coopetition” with Russia shows the Cold War never truly ended, and that current tensions with China reflect a continuation of 20th-century rivalries in a new form. He further observes that the global system is shifting away from unipolarity toward a complex mix of bipolar and multipolar dynamics, signaling the possible return of bloc politics.
A New Cold War is a necessary read for those seeking to understand the complexities of U.S.–China relations across decades. The book sheds light on the factors and consequences shaping their rivalry within the broader global environment. Leoni contributes meaningfully to the literature by offering a fresh perspective on Cold War dynamics. While the work may be challenging for new readers, seasoned scholars and curious learners alike will find it a valuable addition to their shelves.
