ISBN: 978 1630062804, Humanix Books, October 2024, 160 pages, $22.13 (Hardcover)
Reviewed by: Kevin Johnston, Old Dominion University, Arlington, Virginia, United States
Gordon Chang’s recent book Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America is a call to action for American policymakers to strike the People’s Republic of China (PRC) before it can defeat the United States in a military conflict. Chang is a noted scholar of the PRC, with several books and numerous academic articles on the threats China poses to the United States. His writing draws on two decades spent living in mainland China and Hong Kong, where he worked as a lawyer for Baker & McKenzie.
Throughout this short book, Chang outlines the dangers posed by the PRC, how it is already working to undermine American sovereignty and infrastructure, and how these activities could escalate into full-scale war. He concludes with a call for the current administration “to sever virtually all points of contact to the regime” and advocates a strategy of aggressive diplomatic and economic measures to deter PRC aggression.
The book begins by surveying the current threat environment under Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. Chang highlights how the PRC quietly influences world events—such as the war in Ukraine and Iran’s destabilizing actions in the Middle East—and argues that these are not isolated episodes but intersecting operations coordinated by Beijing. China, he claims, acts as “first among equals” within an emerging anti-American bloc. As the foreword states: “There is no such thing as a ‘regional’ conflict. Because superpower China is fighting either directly or indirectly around the world, every conflict has global implications.”
In later chapters, Chang argues that the PRC is eroding American democratic norms by fomenting social-media discord and harming civilians through disease and drugs. By allowing COVID-19 to spread and facilitating the sale of fentanyl in the United States, the PRC is attacking without declaring war or risking its personnel. These actions, he contends, are essential preludes to China’s final objective: total war.
The keystone of Plan Red is the PRC’s alleged desire to launch a war against the United States. Once America is weakened—overextended abroad, destabilized by social-media operations, and harmed through indirect attacks on civilians—the PRC will initiate a full-scale conflict designed to reorder global power. If these steps unfold as Chang envisions, Chinese victory is all but assured.
Chang’s proposed solution is for the United States to recognize the PRC as an immediate threat and pivot its foreign policy accordingly. He advocates a whole-of-nation response that includes expelling Chinese nationals, rejecting Chinese refugees, and severing trade ties with the PRC to undermine its economy. It is an extreme prescription for an extreme problem, but one Chang argues could succeed. Drawing inspiration from the Reagan administration’s approach toward the Soviet Union, he claims these policies—combined with the PRC’s internal weaknesses—would cause China to collapse from within.
Despite its strong warnings, Plan Red overlooks several key PRC vulnerabilities that the United States could exploit in a future conflict. Wide disparities in energy security, alliance structures, and naval power illustrate how uneven the competition between the two countries remains. The PRC imports most of its energy, including large quantities of Australian coal and Middle Eastern petroleum, the latter of which must transit the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. In wartime, the United States could blockade key chokepoints—such as the Strait of Malacca—cutting China off from critical supplies. By contrast, the United States is a fuel exporter capable of sustaining itself without contested imports.
Chang also neglects the imbalance in alliances. Any future conflict would almost certainly involve partners on both sides. The United States benefits from longstanding alliances through NATO, AUKUS, and its partnerships with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. It is also plausible that unaligned states, including India, would support the United States against an aggressive PRC. By contrast, China’s core partners—Russia, North Korea, and Iran—are considerably weaker. Russia is mired in a multi-year war, North Korea’s military relies on outdated equipment, and Iran’s proxy networks have suffered significant setbacks. While China participates in BRICS, it is a commercial grouping, not a defense alliance.
Chang further overlooks the decisive gap in naval capabilities. The U.S. Navy is a global (blue-water) force capable of projecting power worldwide; its nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and long-range capabilities would give it a substantial edge in open-ocean conflict. China’s navy, despite rapid growth, remains largely a coastal (green-water) force with limited ability to threaten the continental United States. If U.S. and allied navies blockaded China’s energy lifelines, the PRC would struggle to break the blockade, especially with minimal support from its partners.
Gordon Chang has written a forceful book highlighting the threats the PRC poses to the United States. Readers seeking to understand the stakes in the Sino-American relationship may find his warnings instructive. He rightly emphasizes China’s ambitions and its desire to reshape the global order. But by omitting key Chinese vulnerabilities, Plan Red offers an incomplete assessment. A realistic appraisal of the PRC’s ability to threaten the United States must consider energy security, alliances, and naval strength. When these factors are weighed, the Chinese threat appears more constrained than Chang suggests. While vigilance toward the PRC is essential, accurate assessments must incorporate these strategic asymmetries.
